●天気予報で遊ぶ
今日の降水確率は40%。
昨日時点での降水確率は20%だった。
「なんだよー雨ふらねーっていってたじゃん」となる。
まあその気持ちはおいておいて、
気象庁の気持ちになってみる。
現時点での大気の状態をAとする。(雨っぽい)
他方現時点以外の大気の状態をBとする。(めっぽう晴れっぽい)
今日Aが起こる確率をP(Bが起こる確率を1-P)とし、
昨日の降水確率が20%であることより
P×A+(1-P)×B=20% ・・・(1)
今日、降水確率が40%なので
A=40% ・・・(2)
ついでに
0%<=P<=100%
0%<=B<=100%
(1)と(2)より
P×40%+(1-P)×B=20%
この式に具体的に数字を入れてみると
P=60% → B<0 ∴不成立
P=50% → B=0%
P=20% → B=15%
・・・
{まぁーBの時の降水確率を低めに見積もっても10~15%くらいはあったのだろうから、昨日から今日にかけて雲の動きは20%以下の低い確率の事象が起きたんだなー。すげぇ。そりゃー気象庁もあてられないわな。}
などといらんことを授業中に考えていたら
授業が身に付かなかった。。。
天気予報の変化だけでも結構おもしろいもんだな。
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