●日経平均の連続性(投資メモ)
自己満足記事です
なぜかというと、日経平均は、2000年の銘柄入れ替えの際に、株価全般の水準とはほぼ無関係に、当時の値で2千数百円、率にして12、3%は下ブレして、分析上の連続性を失っているからだ。
多少荒っぽい言い方だけど、2000年以前の日経平均の計算式(で使う変数)と、それ以後の計算式(で使う変数)は、全く違うモノをつかっている。と言うことかな。
ということは、2000年以前の日経平均とその後を単純に金額で比較しても、意味が薄くなってしまう。ってことか。
言われてみれば、どちらにしても銘柄は常に入れ替わっているわけで連続性はないか。
市場の雰囲気を示すモノとして、どんな数字を使うのかはちゃんと考えた方が良いな。
それにしても、2000年時点ではまだ投資はやっていなかった。こーいうのが純粋に経験不足。という奴だろうなぁと。経験不足を恐れちゃ、なにも出来ないだろうけど。少なくとも歴史に学ぶ事をおろそかにしちゃだめなんだなぁー
なんて。メモ。
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